Analysis of the Tour of Flandres
The Tour of Flanders race is one of the most exciting and ingenious
classics on the entire World Tour calendar. To be honest, it's one of my top-3 favourite
races. I'll leave you with a method to analyse and predict a race's outcome
based on computational analysis.
The analysis will be based between 2010-2019, due the calendar is normal
and not exist the pandemic of Covid-19. And the change of the race date outside
the cobles classic season, making it impossible to correctly analyse the data.
Winners:
Winners |
|
2021 |
Kasper Asgreen |
2020 |
Mathieu Van Der Poel |
2019 |
Alberto Betiol |
2018 |
Niki Terpstra |
2017 |
Philippe Gilbert |
2016 |
Peter Sagan |
2015 |
Alexander Kristoff |
2014 |
Fabian Cancellara |
2013 |
Fabian Cancellara |
2012 |
Tom boonen |
2011 |
Nick Nuyens |
2010 |
Fabian Cancellara |
The races choices for analysis were based on their reputation for
preparing for the Tour of Flanders, due to either having cobles or being tough
enough to get to see the performance of the main candidates for victory in the
Tour of Flanders.
The chosen races were Strade Bianche, H3 Harelbeke, Gent-Wegelvem, Dwars
door vlaanderen, Omloop het nieuwsblad, kuurne-bruxelles-kuurne and Le samyn
(total 7 races). It only counts races that the cyclists have finished or have
reached within control.
From analyzing the data from these seven races, I realized that all of the Tour of Flandres winners in the years chosen for analysis had participated in the H3 Harelbeke race. It is also worth noting a large turnout at the Gent-Wevelgem, Dwars door vlaanderen, Omloop het nieuwsblad and kuurne-bruxelles-kuurne races.
Taking a closer look at the E3 Harelbeke race, which seems to be the
most influential race in preparation for the Tour of Flanders, it was in this
race that the riders had good results. Looking at the results of the cyclists
who won the Tour of Flanders, they all made the top-10 in the E3 Harelbeke
race, except for Nick Nyuens who finished outside the top-10 (38th place).
In conclusion, it is possible to predict the possible candidates for
victory in the Tour of Flanders by analysing the results of races preceding the
Tour of Flanders, as I have done here. With this, I leave you a taste of what
will be contained in the genesis of this blog. I hope you like it and stay
there.
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